Do 2x prefs on early exits make a difference to investors?

Do 2x prefs on early exits make a difference to investors?

Dave McClure recently sent out this tweetstorm, arguing in favor of 2x preferences on notes for early stage investments.  Dave’s passion made me wonder if it was an emotional concern or if it actually moved the needle.  I asked him, and he responded stating that “if I have a few unicorns, it prob doesn’t matter.  if I don’t, then it matters more.”  That was in line with my intuition, but I was interested in a more precise answer. Unfortunately, I don’t have access to a real database of venture investments and exits, so I sought out base rate information on VC investment results.  I decided to use the following data from Seth Levine’s article on venture outcomes.